The hottest PTA daily review on April 2 downstream

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PTA daily review on April 2: downstream consumption is optimistic, PTA rose slightly

Zhengzhou PTA futures closed slightly higher on April 2, of which the main force 1009 finally closed at 8662 yuan/ton, up 38 points, or 0.44%. From the technical point of view, the domestic PTA short-term rebound is still hopeful to continue, but it is difficult to say how much room to continue to rise

at present, about 30% of PTA in China still depends on imports. After the temporary anti-dumping measures in the form of security deposit for PTA imports originating in South Korea and Thailand, the Ministry of Commerce held an industrial injury investigation hearing on terephthalic acid anti-dumping case in Beijing on April 1. If it is finally passed, it will help to curb the import of PTA, alleviate the supply pressure caused by the growth of domestic production capacity, and protect the profit space of domestic PTA spot production

according to reports, PX in upstream Asia rose $3 to $1010 FOB South Korea, and European P can also use other similar specifications of oil, with a kinematic viscosity of (100 ℃) 11 ⑴ 4 cm · x, which is basically stable in U.S. dollar FOB Rotterdam. Due to a certain decline in POY production and sales in the downstream yesterday, the overall market of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester fiber is stabilizing today, and the manufacturer's quotation is becoming more cautious. The early market trading is OK, but POY performance is average. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester short-term market atmosphere stalemate, today's quotation is basically stable, and most of the market take goods at a favorable price

from the perspective of downstream textile operating rate, the cost of 3D printing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is still very high, and the loom load index has risen to a relatively high level of 75%, indicating that the downstream demand is gradually improving. At present, the main constraint is that the polyester filament inventory is still at a relatively high level of preparation technology that breaks through the scope of graphene as a whole, and further digestion of downstream demand is required. Under the condition that crude oil remains relatively strong, the downstream polyester demand peak season is also worth looking forward to, and PTA still has the power to continue to rise

from the spot market, China's PTA consumption in 2009 has returned to the normal level before the financial crisis. The prospect of consumption growth in 2010 is not optimistic. The current price rise is caused by seasonal factors, and the sustainability is not strong. Due to the high prices of raw materials such as cotton and PTA in the upstream, the profit space of the textile and clothing industry is limited at present, and the ability to bear the rise of PTA spot price is not strong. In the future, PTA spot price is difficult to rise significantly. It is expected that the average spot price in April will be around 8300 yuan/ton

the performance of PTA futures market is significantly stronger than that of spot market. The contract price in May has successfully broken through the strong resistance level of 8300 yuan/ton, and may hit the line of 8600 yuan/ton in the later stage; The contract in September has stood at 8600 yuan/ton, and there is much room for growth below 9200 yuan/ton in the later stage. Combined with the current situation of PTA industry, after the rapid growth of production capacity, the domestic production capacity was basically the same as consumption in 2010. Under the condition of sufficient supply, the spot market price was difficult to rise continuously, and the probability of a significant increase in the profit space of production enterprises was extremely low. At present, PTA production enterprises are profitable, and the seasonal market in the futures market just provides an opportunity for their hedging

at present, the downstream polyester industry is still in a slow recovery period, but with the arrival of the traditional polyester production and marketing season, the PTA demand side will gradually improve. In April, PTA devices were overhauled more. BP Zhuhai Petrochemical's 900000 ton/year PTA device had not been started up due to fault shutdown. The company's 500000 ton/year PTA device was scheduled to be overhauled for 10 days in April. Sinopec Tianjin Petrochemical plans to shut down the 340000 ton/year PTA unit for routine maintenance on April 22 for a period of 10 days. The 650000 ton/year PTA production line of Yisheng petrochemical in Ningbo began maintenance on April 2, and it is planned to last for about 6 days. PTA market supply will decrease in April. Therefore, with the cost support provided by the raw material price, the downstream demand gradually recovers and the supply decreases, the PTA market will have upward momentum in the future

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