The hottest PTA encounters the cold of late spring

2022-08-18
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PTA suffered from the cold of late spring and waited for the peak demand season to come.

recently, the expectation of interest rate hike in Europe has resurfaced, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and North Africa has intensified, and the expectation of domestic monetary policy tightening has risen, which has plunged the entire commodity market into turmoil. The "cold of late spring" in the PTA market caused by systemic risks came early, and the main 1105 contract fell nearly 600 yuan/ton a week. The external situation is not optimistic, leading the short-term trend of PTA. The futures price may continue to look for support downward, but it is basically good. The market in the peak demand season in spring is still worth looking forward to

high level operation of upstream raw materials

since mid February, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa has been volatile. After the crude oil price quickly broke through the $100/barrel mark, the rise has not slowed at all. On March 7, the oil price in New York broke through $105/barrel, hitting a high in the past 29 months. If the tension in central and northeast Africa further endangers oil supply, the upward trend of international oil prices will be more obvious

from the perspective of px-mx price difference, the increase of PX upstream MX is far less than px. At present, the price of MX is about 1082 dollars/ton fob in South Korea, while the price of PX broke through the three levels of 1400, 1500 and 1600 dollars in January. The current price is near 1614 dollars/ton fob in South Korea. The price difference between PX and MX continued to expand to 550 dollars/ton from 00 dollars/ton of the second and third test pieces in the same way in December last year, far higher than the normal level of 180 dollars/ton, and the PX production profit increased significantly. CNOOC Huizhou 90 is also a manufacturer of paper boxes, cartons and plastic bags. The 10000 ton/year device will be shut down for maintenance for one month during the month, while the start-up time of the new 900000 ton/year device of S-oil company in South Korea may be postponed for one to two months, and the PX contract promotion price in March quoted by major manufacturers has also been significantly increased

At present, the production cost converted into PTA at PX price is around 00 yuan/ton, the current spot price is about 11450 yuan/ton, and the production profit of PTA factory is 1700 yuan/ton, maintaining a high profit level. Driven by the high profit level, the overall operating load of PTA in Hexion's epikote System 600 (2) is maintained at a high level of 91%

there are not many sources of goods in the spot market. Recently, the production capacity of domestic SINOPEC enterprises is far from enough to supply contract users. In June, some PTA devices from South Korea, Taiwan to the mainland were scheduled to be overhauled in turn, which also led to a tight supply of PTA goods

terminal demand may rise steadily

every month due to the traditional Spring Festival, the market trading volume gradually shrinks to closed, and the transaction resumes after the Spring Festival. Generally, there will be a wave of spring demand peak in every month. From July to the first and middle of August, because of the hot weather, people will wear less and thin clothes, and there will be a low season of fabric sales, and people's clothes will also change from light to heavy due to the change of seasons, The sales of fabrics have also entered the most prosperous period of the year, which is the so-called low and peak season of textile tradition

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